November 13 2006
For the week of Nov 13, 2006 --- Vol. 4, Issue 46
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"FOR MOST FOLKS, NO NEWS IS GOOD NEWS...BUT FOR THE MEDIA, GOOD NEWS IS NOT NEWS AT ALL." Gloria Borger Isn't that the truth - and aside from election news, much of this week contained little to no economic news or reports for Traders to chew on. This indeed turned out to be good news for Bonds and home loan rates, which improved over the course of the week, although very slightly.
A few interesting notes from the week on housing and home loan rates...First, the old "Maestro" himself, former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan was in the news, saying the current economic downturn was "likely temporary." Greenspan also noted the worst of the housing market slump is likely past us. During a Q&A session at the annual Charles Schwab Impact conference in Washington DC, Big Al stated "The economy is obviously going through a significant slowing period, which as best I can tell is more than likely temporary. And while the housing market is not out of the woods yet, the current slump may not worsen." A little cryptic in his trademark style...but if he's right, this could point to a good buying opportunity for homes right now.
Additionally, rumors circulated about some change in direction of China's massive holdings of foreign exchange reserves - which are mainly ours, in the form of Mortgage Bonds. Remember that their huge appetite for our Bonds has helped keep Bond prices high and home loan rates low. It sounds as if China is looking to diversify the country's foreign-exchange reserves and is considering "various options", such as trading in some of their hoard of US Dollar-based Bonds - again, such as Mortgage Bonds - in exchange for other foreign currencies and gold. If China is in the process of cashing in some of their Bond holdings, this could pressure Bond pricing lower in time, resulting in higher home loan rates.
JUST WHEN YOU THOUGHT IT WAS SAFE TO GET INTO A NEW CELL PHONE OR PDA...THERE'S A DANGER LURKING ABOUT THAT YOU NEED TO BE AWARE OF. YOUR PRIVATE INFORMATION COULD BE AT RISK IF YOU FAIL TO TAKE ONE SIMPLE ACTION WITH YOUR OLD CELL PHONE OR PDA. READ THIS WEEK'S MORTGAGE MARKET VIEW. |
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Looking at the week ahead, the economic calendar wakes up and picks up some serious steam, loaded with market-moving economic reports such as Retail Sales and the inflation-measuring Core Producer Price Index on Tuesday; the NY Empire State Manufacturing Index and the always-interesting Fed Meeting Minutes on Wednesday; Industrial Production, the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index and more inflation data with the Core Consumer Price Index on Thursday; and last but not least, a look at the housing market with Housing Starts and Building Permits on Friday.
Take a look at the chart below, showing Bond prices. When Bond prices move higher, home loan rates improve. The chart clearly shows how Bonds and home loan rates have lately had a tough time beating the overhead resistance level they are currently bumping against...which means that if recent history repeats itself, Bond prices and home loan rates may be ripe to worsen. But not to say they couldn't bash through resistance and improve...it will all depend on the flavor of the weighty economic news coming this week.
Bottom line: If this week's reports show continued strength in the economy and further signs of inflation, Bond pricing and home loan rates are likely to worsen. To see improvement in home loan rates this week, it will take some very negative economic news or signs that inflation is waning.
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THE AGONY OF DELETE...
Just when you thought your personal data like passwords and bank information was safe because you deleted it from your cell or PDA...turns out that hackers can still steal the information. Believe it or not, your private data can easily be hijacked from your trashed or turned in device, even when you've deleted everything. That could cause some major headaches for a lot of innocent people. But the good news is that you can protect yourself.
With the advancement of PDA's and cell phones, these devices have become mini computers and contain loads of valuable and private information. Individuals store information in their cell phones like passwords, bank account numbers, appointments, contact information, even social security numbers.
And for most individuals, cell phones and PDA's are used for about 1.5 years and then replaced, usually by upgrading to a newer model. Old cell phones and PDA's are sold on EBay, tossed in the trash, or sent off to a cell phone recycling center. Of course, before turning it in or trashing it, most wisely delete the information.
But in reality, the information is not completely deleted...it remains on the device.
The part that is deleted is the pathway for the information to be displayed. Much like with a computer - when a file is deleted the operating system never erases the data, it only deletes the pointers to where the data is located. Hackers have the advanced software available that can resurrect erased data from a cell phone or PDA, even if you have already "deleted" the information.
In fact, the data can be recovered in 85% of cell phones and PDA's! So hackers are buying old cell phones, extracting this valuable information, and passing it along to identity thieves.
But, there is a solution and it only requires a few additional steps to ensure that the data is permanently deleted and hacker-free.
Simply start by hitting this link www.wirelessrecycling.com, click on the "Cell Phone Data Eraser", select the cell phone manufacturer, model, and click on the download instructions icon. Follow the instructions and all of the data will be completely and permanently removed. Can't find the make and model? No worries - just contact the manufacturer of the cell phone or PDA, and ask for instructions on how to permanently delete all information from the device.
With just a few clicks of the mouse you can rest assured that when you sell or trash that old model, hackers and identity thieves will not be able to track where you have been, what your account numbers are, read confidential emails, or view photos or videos of your loved ones. And be sure to forward this important information on to everyone you know. Most likely they have cell phones or PDA's and may be looking to upgrade. Knowing this valuable bit of information will keep them safe, so pass it on! |
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Remember, as a general rule, weaker than expected economic data is good for rates, while positive data causes rates to rise.
Economic Calendar for the Week of November 13 – November 17
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