September 25 2006
For the week of Sep 25, 2006 --- Vol. 4, Issue 39
 |
 |
WHAT DO THE LOCHNESS MONSTER, THE ABOMINABLE SNOWMAN, THE TOOTH FAIRY, A UNICORN AND AN ECONOMIC "SOFT LANDING" ALL HAVE IN COMMON? You guessed it...experts agree they are all likely mythical. While a slowdown in economic growth, contained inflation and a feather-pillow "soft landing" is what the Fed had in mind for the economy - history shows that economic "soft landings" are exceedingly rare, and that the Fed almost always hikes rates too far in their tightening cycles. Last week's news sure raised some eyebrows on this account - so let's take a closer look.
First the Producer Price Index - which shows if costs are increasing for those producing the goods we buy - came in showing costs had not increased last month, but actually decreased! Quite a surprise, although some of the decline was due to lower oil prices...but still good news, as producers have fewer reason to pass on higher costs to us consumers. Next, the Fed for the second straight meeting, opted to stay in a "paused" position, and commented that while economic growth is moderating, some inflation risks remain. Fine - no real surprises there, as the Fed tends to not want to shock or upset the market via their prepared commentary. But then along came Friday's somewhat dramatic Philly Fed manufacturing report, showing a very major slowdown in the manufacturing sector. Many economists are wondering, "Did the steam leave the economy?" The cool financial news of the week helped Bond prices improve, and brought about .125% of improvement to home loan rates.
And now while a nice orderly slowdown that feels like a cool breeze is what the Fed desired with their string of seventeen rate hikes, concerns are now mounting about the severity of the slowdown. The Fed has had a history of always going too far, not being patient enough and sending the economy into recession. It will be interesting to see how things play out going forward, and next weeks reports will be especially important...read on.
"GEZHUNDHEIT"..."BLESS YOU"..."HEY, COVER YOUR MOUTH WHEN YOU SNEEZE!" WE'RE GETTING READY TO HEAR IT ALL OVER AGAIN, AS WE HEAD INTO COLD AND FLU SEASON. WOULD YOU LIKE A FEW LESS OF THOSE COMMENTS DIRECTED YOUR WAY? DON'T MISS THIS WEEK'S MORTGAGE MARKET VIEW - WITH SOME SURPRISING TIPS ON STAYING HEALTHY THIS SEASON. |
|
|
The coming week is loaded with important information on the state of housing, the economy, inflation...the works. On the heels of last week's two weak economic reads, more attention than ever will be focused on the upcoming headlines, as Traders, analysts, and consumers all wonder if the Fed has indeed gone too far in their cycle of rate hikes?
One important report of note is the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index...and while it sounds like a big mouthful of something boring, it's a look at the prices we are all paying each and every day as consumers - pretty important stuff, which impacts every one of us. And unlike the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which measures a "fixed basket" of goods and services, the PCE takes into consideration the actual purchases being made by all of us, including changes in our buying trends and patterns. This is the Fed's very favorite read on inflation...so better believe Friday's release of this number will make some news, as everyone including armchair economists rate the Fed on their course of action.
The chart below looks pretty good, showing clearly how Bond prices have climbed higher over the past few months, meaning home loan rates have in turn been moving lower. Could rates continue to improve further? It's sure possible...and the action for rates this week will all depend on the flavor of the news.
Good rule of thumb to keep in mind - if the reports and numbers come out hot and strong, super positive for the economy, or have a scent of inflation...this will be bad news for Bond pricing and home loan rates. Numbers that show a cooling economy or contained inflation will be good news for Bonds and home loan rates.
Listen in to the news this week, and be your own armchair economist - then read next week's issue to see how you did!
|
|
|
IT'S THAT TIME OF YEAR AGAIN...Along with back to school, baseball playoffs, football starting, fall in full swing...here comes something less fun, the dreaded cold and flu season. And the cost of the season is nothing to sneeze at - did you know that Americans spent $3.8 Billion on over the counter cold and flu remedies last year? Then factor in how much time and productivity was lost on sick-time in the workplace, money spent on co-pays for a doctors visit and prescriptions - it's a staggering amount of money, let alone the just plain miserable feeling we've all had at one time or another, when colds and flu arrive in our own home.
A few quick tips - some you may know, but a few might be surprises:
First, determine how susceptible you are by asking yourself a few questions. Were you ill several times last year? Do you frequently feel fatigued? Do you sleep less than seven hours per night? If you answer yes to several of the questions, it may be a good idea to consult your doctor for a pre-flu season check-up.
Build up your immune system by taking the time now to catch up on sleep and get a flu shot. Ever heard the old adage to "starve a fever and feed a cold"? While you don't need to go as far as actually starving, the idea is if you're hot from a fever, you need to put less fuel into your body to cool it down, and if you're cold from the chills, you need to eat to fuel your body and warm it up. Modern medicine may argue that adding a few supplements of medicine and continuing to eat would be the best alternative.
For the common cold, take a high dose combo of Vitamin C and Zinc. Taking these supplements has shown that these remedies can markedly reduce cold symptoms. For the flu, ask your doctor for a prescription of an antiviral drug. This could help shorten the duration of the flu and will have you back on your feet in no time. For preventative measures - try a product like Airborne, to help keep your immune system strong.
Here's a tip that's actually pretty enjoyable. Everybody loves a nice steam - but did you know it can help keep you well? That's right, sitting in a hot steam room can actually kill many germs that could make you sick. Experts say that those who enjoy a weekly steam reduce their chances of getting sick very dramatically. Some steam many times a day to break off cold symptoms.
Wash your hands frequently, and carry a hand sanitizer such as Purell with you to keep your hands germ free. Hand to mouth is the most common way that people get sick, so keep those hands clean, and encourage your family to do the same.
And here's a little known, interesting, yet highly effective idea...did you know you can literally "wash that cold right out of your nose"? Although it doesn't look pretty in action, a simple saline nasal wash or nasal irrigation can rid you of colds and allergies, by washing out the germs - and also healing and protecting your nasal passages. When dry winter air makes the tissues inside your sinuses dry and cracked, germs have a perfect place to live and breed - making you sick more easily. But a saline nasal wash, available at most drugstores, can lubricate, protect and clean those nasal tissues - and keep you well and healthy. And it may actually help reduce snoring!
At the end of the day - what's more important than your health? By taking a little time to protect yourself from illness, you ensure that you can continue to do all the other things in life that are important to you - spending time with family and friends, working hard at your career, and enjoying time living in a healthy body! |
|
|
Remember, as a general rule, weaker than expected economic data is good for rates, while positive data causes rates to rise.
Economic Calendar for the Week of September 25 – September 29
Date
|
ET
|
Economic Report
|
For
|
Estimate
|
Actual
|
Prior
|
Impact
|
|
|
|
01-17-2007, 10:10 PM
Linear Mode
